Race, gender and income level are strong indicators of whom a Manhattan voter chooses in a Democratic primary, but one pollster is looking at the borough’s commuters for a clue.
Pollster Matthew Weaver, of Bronstein & Weaver Inc., broke down the borough’s 2005 Democratic primary and noted how areas with a lot of bus commuters, train riders and car drivers voted in each election district. Weaver did similar studies in other races throughout the country, he said, but found that the pattern is prominent in Manhattan.
“This is a level deeper, to try to categorize people who otherwise may be very similar in their demographics, but very dissimilar in other areas of their lifestyle, such as commuting and how far you commute,” Weaver said.
In the 2005 race between District Attorney Robert Morgenthau and Leslie Crocker Snyder, Weaver saw that bus and train commuters preferred the challenger whereas the incumbent scored with voters who have a 30-minute commute.
In the 2005 mayoral primary, victor Fernando Ferrer was popular among bus and train commuters while runner-up Rep. Anthony Weiner was a hit with car drivers.
“It should force [candidates] to redefine to what they see as relevant interest groups, and relevant target strategies in terms of spending,” Weaver said.
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