James Carville. Photo by jdiasica. Photo courtesy of Flickr Commons.

Former Bill Clinton advisor and Democratic strategist James Carville added another log to the bonfire of speculation about Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s 2016 presidential chances. Carville was on stage last night at the 92nd Street Y for a forum moderated by Buzzfeed’s Ben Smith to talk about the middle class, but when the conversation drifted to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s chances at the Democratic nomination for 2016, New York’s governor came up. “I think Andrew is going to be front and center,” Carville said, when Smith mentioned Cuomo as a contender. But Carville wouldn’t rule out Hillary either, saying, “Running for president is like having sex: nobody does it once and forgets about it.”

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There are some interesting clues to insider politics. Clinton has announced that she is not interested in serving another term. She says she will not campaign for the president. Her husband, Bill, says he wishes his wife would run for the top job.

The woman who replaced Clinton in the Senate, Kirsten Gillibrand, says she will be an original signatory to the draft Hillary movement. I can hardly believe she made that announcement without checking with Hillary. A recent New York Times poll shows there has been a reversal in the female vote and that a majority of women now favor Mitt Romney.

Obviously, we have no real idea about what goes on here. But we have to remember that Barack Obama narrowly edged out Clinton for the Democratic nomination to run for president. Maybe, in the immortal words of Marlon Brando in On the Waterfront, Clinton is still thinking, “I could have been a contender.” Or maybe there are another thousand reasons why Hillary is saying what she’s saying.

Now the atmosphere is filled with rumors that Team Obama will have to replace Vice President Joe Biden with Clinton. Up until now, everyone denied the rumor. The president has stated that he isn’t making any changes. But winning the presidency is what we call a “mutually exclusive game”; you only get one winner and there are no second prizes.
If confronted by the cold hard facts that they might lose the presidency, the Obama people may have to ask Clinton and Biden to switch places—Clinton runs for vice president and Biden is offered the secretary of state position. I’m a big Biden fan and I think he has the chops to make a lot of friends for the United States.

Back home in New York, one can only wonder how Gov. Cuomo is taking to all of this. We know the Cuomos are always thinking six moves in advance—“Is this good for me or bad for me?”

If Clinton runs for vice president and the ticket wins, there will be no contest—she’ll be the candidate in 2016. On the other hand, if she doesn’t run, there will be more of a Cuomo opportunity. Let’s face it, I don’t think Clinton wants to do it and I don’t think that Obama wants to jettison Biden, but when the middle of the night comes and it’s a question of winning or losing, the hard realities will prevail. It will be a win-win.

There have been many times in U.S. history when such difficult decisions have been made. Ike had to live with Nixon, who he never really liked. Kennedy had to take Johnson; without him, he just wouldn’t have won. So unless Hillary is ill or is otherwise indisposed, she’ll have to take the offer when and if it comes.

When and if Hillary becomes vice president, she will be the font of all patronage and pork in New York. That too, may cause a little friction with the governor’s office—or just the opposite. You just never know.

Based on recent polling, I really think that this is a no-brainer. The way it looks now, Hillary, if she wins, would be the first female vice president. That’s huge.

Alan S. Chartock is president and CEO of WAMC/Northeast Public Radio and an executive publisher at The Legislative Gazette.

Meanwhile, something else is going on. An interesting group of people is encouraging the immensely popular Hillary Rodham Clinton to run for president, despite her having said she’s done with politics. There is her successor as United States senator, Kirsten Gillibrand, for example. I know Gillibrand, and I can tell you that she is one tough cookie. She is a hell of a smart woman who knows how to play the cards, and I have never seen her make a political error. When she recently said she would be a charter member of the Draft Hillary for President Club, I think
we can assume she knew exactly what she was doing. She also had to know that when Cuomo heard what she’d said, he would not be a happy camper. Gillibrand must have assessed the risk and figured it was worth it. To know Cuomo is to know that all other politicians are seen as rivals and, in many cases, as the enemy. I suspect he learned that from his pop. Politics is a tough game, and only one person gets to be president. Cuomo is immensely popular in the polls. Nonetheless, the jury is still out as to whether the voters like him personally as much as they like what he has done in New York.
While Gov. Cuomo may be popular with the people, I think it is fair to say that the political insiders aren’t exactly crazy about him. Maybe that’s why Gillibrand was recently joined by fellow Democrat Sheldon Silver, the sharpest, smartest and sliest politician in politics, when he issued what appeared to be a forceful endorsement of Hillary for president. When pressed, Silver said Cuomo was good as well. We know that the Senate Democrats, who are in the minority, don’t like Cuomo. They will probably stay in the minority because of Cuomo’s support for
the Republicans in the state Senate. While Cuomo’s credentials are arguable, those Democrats in the state Senate are old-style tax-the-rich Democrats.
A third person with encouraging words for a Hillary candidacy is none other than Bill Clinton, who says he hopes that she will change her mind and run. Now I ask you, Would he do that without his wife’s tacit support? We know that Hillary says she will not do a second term as secretary of State and she has said she won’t campaign for President Obama. That sounds like she wants to clear the boards to run. If the state and national polls are telling us anything, it is that Hillary would mop the floor with Cuomo in a head-to-head confrontation. Of course, it’s still very early, and we do not know why Hillary has said that she wouldn’t run. But the tea leaves are all suggesting that a Clinton candidacy is what the people and the political community want. Hey, it’s a good thing that Cuomo and his people don’t read my column.

Alan S. Chartock is president and CEO of WAMC/Northeast Public Radio and an executive publisher at The Legislative Gazette.

Caroline Kennedy is an expert on things educational.

She and Uncle Ted probably provided the final push that got Barack Obama over the line. Caroline Kennedy’s speech was not that of a backroom politician but a clear, thoughtful voice that I expect is to speaking as Joan Baez’s voice is to singing. When their lips move, you listen. Kennedy has the connections not only to her friend, the governor, but to the president she helped elect.

Of all the names that have been mentioned, only one other is well known to the public and that is Andrew Cuomo, the ambitious and increasingly accomplished New York Attorney General. The younger Cuomo has always wanted to sit in the chair that Papa Mario occupied on the second floor of the State Capitol. The job of United States Senator from New York is a very important one. I am not surprised that Cuomo the younger wants it. The question is whether Paterson would be better off with Andrew in the Senate or with Kennedy. Put yourself in Paterson’s place. Wouldn’t you want a woman with an international reputation in the Senate, as opposed to a rival who you know is looking to replace you when and if you make a blunder? You have the advantage of promoting another woman to the Senate. Even if Andrew got down on his knees and promised never, ever to betray you, would you believe him? If Kennedy were not in the race, Paterson would have to consider Cuomo over some of the others who are what I have always called “Who-they’s?” in politics.

Choosing an obscure member of Congress from New York just wouldn’t meet your political needs. Even the upstate-downstate conundrum would be solved because Kennedy transcends the issues.

Of course, this is far from a done deal. No matter what the published reports say, she still has to want it. The family legacy of martyrdom is not to be ignored, and that has to sit heavily on Kennedy’s mind. If I were Paterson, who is going to need all the help he can get in these dangerous times, I would seriously try to turn this opportunity into a reality.
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Alan S. Chartock is president and CEO of WAMC/Northeast Public Radio and an executive publisher at The Legislative Gazette.

“I decided then that I wasn’t going to be a history academic. I was going to get into it my own way,” he said.

Decades later, Holzer is one of the country’s leading Lincoln scholars. He has written and edited more than 30 books on Lincoln and the Civil War, has toured the country giving lectures and is co-chair of the U.S. Lincoln Bicentennial Commission.

A former press secretary for Bella Abzug and Mario Cuomo, he comes at his topic not just with an

encyclopedic knowledge of all things Lincoln but also with his own experience in politics to lend his insight a little more weight. His interest in Lincoln also informs the décor of his office at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, where he is senior vice president of external affairs: Lincoln statues and lithographs are scattered everywhere, and lining the walls are photos of Holzer with politicians, movie stars and authors with whom he has collaborated in his lifelong study of America’s 16th president.

His latest book, Lincoln President-Elect: Abraham Lincoln and the Great Secession Winter 1860-1861, was celebrated at a Nov. 10 publication party.

The book chronicles one of the most difficult transitions in American history. The Union was on the verge of collapse, with forces in and outside of Washington hoping to sabotage Lincoln’s presidency. Wild speculations flew back and forth on the new president’s intentions, qualifications and character. Throughout the entire period Lincoln remained silent, making no speeches and issuing very few statements for public consumption, following a deliberate tactic that Lincoln called “masterly inactivity.”

Not only did he face resistance in the South, where state legislatures were moving to secede, but in Washington, several members of the outgoing James Buchanan administration were conspiring against him from within the White House.

The efforts were much more serious, Holzer quipped, than when members of the Clinton administration allegedly removed the “W” keys from White House keyboards while packing up before the inauguration of George W. Bush in 2000.

Thinking about his own history in New York politics, his study of Lincoln and his knowledge of where things are now, Holzer recounted one story from the book where Lincoln traveled to Albany after being elected: “The legislators were all fighting with the governor about who should sit where; who should go to the dinner,” he said. “I mean, nothing has changed!”
Holzer, in an interview before the election, said his book holds several important lessons for the next president who, like Lincoln, will likely be facing a major crisis from the moment he takes office.

“He was the model president-elect,” Holzer said of Lincoln. “What he has is something that people don’t have today, and generally CNN and FOX and blogs make it very difficult to have—and that’s patience,” said Holzer, citing the quality as one of the most important aspects of a president.

Holzer also points to Lincoln’s desire for diversity in his cabinet as a value the next president should look to adopt.

“More than rivals, Lincoln went in a huge way for diversity,” he said. “He would let everybody else squabble and fight, listen to everybody and finally do the decision.”

As for an inaugural address, Holzer noted that Lincoln wrote an angry first draft, excoriating those who wished to expand slavery and delivering an ultimatum to choose “peace or the sword.” But he recommended the next president follow Lincoln’s example of moderating the tone over the course of editing—by the time the final draft was written, Lincoln asked Americans to look to “the better angels of our nature.”

Another key piece of advice from Lincoln, according to Holzer: “Leave your hometown advisers at home.” Lincoln only hired one friend from Springfield when he was elected and rarely heeded that man’s advice. Holzer said presidents like Jimmy Carter, who brought their entire network of advisers from home and tried to transplant them to Washington, tended to face calamitous results.

Finally, Holzer advised, “Stick to the principles that got you elected.”
The next president will have difficulty achieving many elements of his agenda while navigating the fallout from the current economic turmoil. Lincoln’s example of dealing with a crisis greater than any other in American history—while nonetheless holding fast to what had guided him during the campaign—was crucial to his success, Holzer said.

The timing of the release is fortuitous—Holzer worked on the book for four years, aiming for Lincoln President-Elect to hit the shelves when it could have maximum impact.

“I always hoped that it would come out when there was a president-elect,” he said. Though a committed Democrat who supported Sen. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, Holzer is comforted by the fact that the new president-elect is a Lincoln admirer.

“Obama loves Lincoln,” he said. “He quotes him all the time.”