Yesterday I posted my predictions for the winners on Sunday’s 66^th Annual Tony Awards telecast. Below, my feelings about who will and who should go home with the gold in the musical categories:

Best Musical: Nominees include the already-shuttered Leap of Faith, Newsies, Nice Work If You Can Get It, and Once. This is a rather humdrum list. Once is truly a play with music, as End of the Rainbow and Peter and the Starcatcher both identified themselves this season, but it opted to classify itself as a musical, so I’ll play it as it lays. And it lies at the head of the pack here, challenged only by the crowd-pleasing Newsies. Who would have thought that Newsies, based on a bomb Disney movie musical from twenty years ago, would be the Goliath in this race? I still find it a middling musical, and as the more commercial one, would benefit less from a Tony win than Once, which could use the push. I, perhaps foolishly, grant the win to Once, which succeeds better on its own (slightly problematic) terms than the other nominees.

Will win: Once

Should win: Once

Should have been nominated: absolutely nothing else this season

Best Direction of a Musical: Nominees include Jeff Calhoun (Newsies), Kathleen Marshall (Nice Work If You Can Get It), Diane Paulus (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess), and John Tiffany (Once). Tiffany will likely prevail here, and should: he managed to fuse a lot of unorthodox moving parts to turn Once into The Little Show That Could. Personally, I’d vote for Follies’ Eric Schaeffer over this quartet, but he didn’t make the cut.

Will win: Tiffany

Should win: Tiffany

Should have been nominated: Eric Schaeffer, Follies

Best Leading Actor in a Musical: Nominees include Danny Burstein (Follies), Jeremy Jordan (Newsies), Steve Kazee (Once), Norm Lewis (Porgy), and Ron Raines (Follies). Sometimes I play this game, where I put my money on the actor I want to win less, as karmic insurance that the one I want to win more will prevail. So even though the general consensus has it that long overdue veteran Burstein will win for his definitive portrayal of Buddy, I’ll stick the much-hyped Jordan instead. All the while, I feel that a solid Lewis and especially Kazee are being overlooked in the mix, particularly the latter nominee, whose delicate work headlining this year’s sleeper hit absolutely deserves recognition.

Will win: Jordan

Should win: Burstein or Kazee

Should have been nominated: no one

Best Leading Actress in a Play: Nominees include Jan Maxwell (Follies), Audra McDonald (Porgy), Cristin Milioti (Once), Kelli O’Hara (Nice Work), and Laura Osnes (Bonnie and Clyde). I’m a huge proponent of Maxwell’s work this year; her rendition of “Story of Jessie and Lucy” slew me, and I haven’t stopped thinking about it all year. Also, Milioti’s idiosyncratic blend of tenderness and pluck was a big driving force behind Once’s success – her “The Hill” has also haunted me all season. But this one looks like McDonald’s race to lose, and that rankles me. Though it’s her first award as a leading performer, McDonald will set a record with five acting wins – tying Julie Harris and Angela Lansbury – and I just don’t think her Bess is harrowing or transcendent enough to earn that career milestone (one that took Lansbury an additional four decades to hit, at that). Still she’s a beloved member of the community, and a win seems all but assured.

Will win: McDonald

Should win: Maxwell

Should have been nominated: Bernadette Peters, Follies

Best Featured Actor in a Play: Nominees include Philip Boykin (Porgy), Michael Cerveris (Evita), David Alan Grier (Porgy), Michael McGrath (Nice Work), and Josh Young (Jesus Christ Superstar). Except for McGrath, all of the nominees here are nominated for revivals, and even Nice Work dusts off a bunch of Gershwin standards. I give McGrath the edge over Cerveris, but for me, Boykin stands out the most. His Crown was riveting, memorable and incredibly well-sung. He buoyed Porgy to places it didn’t go when he wasn’t onstage.

Will win: McGrath

Should win: Boykin

Should have been nominated: Patrick Page, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark (yes, really)

Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Nominees include Elizabeth A. Davis (Once), Jayne Houdyshell (Follies), Judy Kaye (Nice Work), Jessie Mueller (On a Clear Day You Can See Forever), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (Ghost the Musical). Mueller was the bright light in an otherwise execrable misfire, and Houdyshell brought humor and subtlety to a small but memorable part. Still, I said it in my review http://nypress.com/hard-work/, this is Kaye’s to win. Note to those who want a Tony: put a chandelier in your show, too.

Will win: Kaye

Should win: Houdyshell or Mueller

Should have been nominated: Melissa van der Schyff, Bonnie or Bryona Marie Parham or NaTasha Yvette Williams, Porgy

Let’s see how my predictions go!

Photo credit: Deen van Meer.

Newsies dances as fast as it can

By Doug Strassler

Newsies: The Musical, the new family-friendly Disney musical that just opened at the Nederlander Theater, pounds out its almost-catchy tunes from the marquee for all passersby to hear, only to bellow even louder for those privileged enough to get this hot ticket and see the show. And one might think that the show, loosely based on a real New York newsboy strike in the summer of 1899, might to have something to say about the collision of art and commerce in the printing industry. But the bigger impression one gets from this enjoyably hollow exercise (and boy is it a workout for those onstage!) isn’t about writing at all; it’s about the math required to stitch together a potential Broadway smash, at all costs.

By all means, one would think that the producers have succeeded. Newsies, directed by Jeff Calhoun’s transferred from a regional run at the Paper Mill Playhouse early this season and has already announced one extension through the summer (with more likely) and boasts a new star in the much-ballyhooed Jeremy Jordan. The charismatic, boyish actor (who already originated another leading role on the Great White Way this fall in Bonnie and Clyde) is impressive as Jack Kelly, one of many urchins peddling papers on the streets of the city. When boo-hiss villain Joseph Pulitzer (John Dossett) ups the price of his “papes,” it sends Kelly’s crew, which includes the injured Crutchie (an outstanding Andrew Keenan-Bolger), nerdy Davey (Ben Fankhauser,) and Davey’s young brother, Les (played by either Matthew J. Schechter and Lewis Grosso), into a frenzy. With Davey’s prodding, Jack spearheads the strike.

Newsies, which had the misfortune to begin life as a film twenty years before the live action movie musical came back in vogue and tanked, toes the formula line to ensure a different outcome on Broadway. Some of this success will be earned, starting with the dance factor. The punishing choreographer Christopher Gattelli has arranged numerous group arrangements involving plenty of dancing, flipping, and mid-air twirling; the entire cast astounds with their movement ability, especially in Jess Goldstein’s detailed costumes (pay attention when Jack and the gang try to convince their Brooklyn newsie rivals to join the strike; apparently, hipsters lived in the borough even at the turn of the last century). Harvey Fierstein, in adapting Bob Tzudiker’s and Noni White’s screenplay, has conflated Bill Pullman’s crusading reporter character and Davey’s sister Sarah, a love interest for Jack, into Katharine Plummer (Kara Lindsay), a plucky female journalist. For all the ink dropped heralding the arrival of Jordan, it is Lindsay who runs away with Newsies. Katharine’s a smart, plot-propelling character, and the performer turns one of the show’s new songs, “Watch What Happens,” into a character-defining look at the inherent challenges in the newswriting business.

Unfortunately, Newsies also incurs few creative demerits, several of which must also be ascribed to Fierstein. While unfairly diminishing the role of Davey (which is a shame; Fankhauser gives a spirited performance that doesn’t deserve to be overshadowed), he cleaves too closely to the movie’s screenplay in other ways. At one point, Davey mentions how his father would love to meet Jack. But that made sense because in the film’s next scene, he brought Jack home to meet his family; in the stage version, we never even see Davey’s dad. Why not trim this fat? Additionally, the role of music hall diva Medda Larkin was created to shoehorn Ann-Margret into the movie and provide it with an additional star. Her presence in the stage version is unnecessary and slows the production down.

And then there’s the score, with music by Alan Menken and lyrics by Jack Feldman (who replaced the intended Howard Ashman for the movie version). The duo deftly blends current pop sensibilities with more standard orchestral swing on holdovers from the film, including “Seize the Day,” “The World Will Know,” “King of New York,” and “Carrying the Banner” (in fact, with a chorus line shouting “It’s a fine life!,” the score calls to mind both Annie and Oliver!). The new songs, particularly love ballad “Something to Believe In,” feel less inspired, however, and ultimately, all of the songs blend together and the impressive dancing feels redundant. Numbers also stop only to reprise themselves immediately after, in a seemingly desperate attempt for as much “look at what we can do” applause as possible.

All of these choices reflect a canned feeling for Newsies. The only song approaching an organic, character-based showstopper to be found in richer recent shows like Avenue Q, The Book of Mormon or Next to Normal, is “Santa Fe,” in which Jack sings of his dream life away from the city. But the creative team has squandered it by placing it as the show’s opening number, which is a mistake. We learn important information about Jack before we even know who he is. The show, buoyant as it is, shares this problem. It’s an audience- pleaser without an identity of its own.

Newsies

Nederlander Theatre, 208 W. 41^st St. www.newsiesthemusical.com