Bruce Gyory

Top Democratic consultant Bruce Gyory weighs in on the recent congressional primaries in our print issue out today:

Pundits do a good job of assessing winners and losers after electoral events like the recent congressional primaries. Few are better, for example, than City & State’s First Read on Fridays.

Yet while this last primary’s victors have already been determined, I would like to parse the significant factors underlying who won, who lost and why.

First, let’s look at the GOP Senate race. In statewide primaries generally the most potent combination a candidate can achieve is being dubbed the most conservative in the field and winning the designation of upstate’s horse. That is what Wendy Long rode to victory.

The GOP registration breakdown is 53 percent from upstate, 30 percent from the suburbs (Long Island, Westchester and Rockland) and 17 percent from New York City. But in terms of who actually votes in GOP primaries, upstate is in the driver’s seat. In the 2010 gubernatorial primary, the regional split in the vote among Republicans was 66 percent upstate, 25 percent in the suburbs and 9 percent in New York City.

The preliminary returns in this year’s Senate primary show upstate voters casting 60 percent of the GOP vote, the suburbs accounting for 27 percent and the five boroughs making up the remaining 13 percent. Long carried upstate by a wide margin, enabling her to win a majority in a three-way race. Long first demonstrated her strength upstate at the GOP convention. In a Republican primary, Turner’s base in New York City and Maragos’ in Nassau simply were too slender to carry a statewide primary.

Regionalism was also bolstered by ideology. Long was perceived to be the most conservative candidate in the race (e.g., carrying Suffolk County). Her endorsement by the Conservative Party became the seal of approval for right-wing Republicans.

To read the full article at City & State click here.

Rudy Giuliani. Photo courtesy of Wiki Commons.

U.S. Senate

Wendy Long and Bob Turner got into a spat over a robocall Rudy Giuliani recorded for Turner.

Brooklyn

Fearing the potential election of Charles Barron, a flood of national campaign cash in flowing in for Hakeem Jeffries.

Nydia Velazquez and her challengers debated on NY1.

Manhattan

Tom Duane officially endorsed Brad Hoylman.

Queens

Grace Meng loaned her campaign $60,000.

Staten Island

Despite ample fodder, Mark Murphy is largely keeping things positive in his battle with Michael Grimm.

State Senate

Sen. Steve Saland lost the Conservative line over his gay marriage vote.

Elsewhere

Sunday was a frenzied day of campaigning in New York’s congressional primaries.

Ex-Gov. George Pataki recorded a robocall blasting Sean Patrick Maloney.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo says he isn’t weighing in on the NY-18 primary.

Cuomo did endorse Velazquez, Jeffries and Charlie Rangel.

To read more from City & State click here.

Bob Turner. Photo courtesy of Wiki Commons.

As legislators scrambled to get their bills passed with the session coming to a close this week, Gov. Andrew Cuomo saw his marijuana legislation go up in smoke, reviving questions about a second-year slump, but sealed a deal on teacher evaluations with the strategic mastery politicos have come to expect from the governor. So with mixed results for Cuomo, we looked elsewhere across the city and state for this week’s winners and losers.

Peter Rivera – When Gov. Cuomo nominated the assemblyman a few months ago to take over as commissioner of the Labor Department, Rivera indicated that it was a hard sell and said that the governor had to convince him to leave. But he’s following a well-worn path to Cuomo-land, a haven for Assembly refugees. And with Rivera’s ties to a troubled Bronx nonprofit, whose executive director was just convicted of fraud and obstruction of justice, the assemblyman may have decided that it was time to go.

Richard Iannuzzi – The Legislature’s passage of a bill to limit disclosure of teacher evaluations was a rare win for the NYSUT president, who has found himself a political punching bag for months as the national political discourse turned toward talk of taming the unions. But Senate Republicans gambled this week on siding with NYSUT over Mayor Michael Bloomberg, both party benefactors, despite Bloomberg’s largesse toward the conference and disapproval of the bill. Iannuzzi, unlike Bloomberg, isn’t a lame duck.

Preet Bharara – We weren’t keeping track with an abacus or anything, but we’re sort of stunned to realize the Southern District U.S. Attorney had notched 60 convictions in insider trading cases over his term in office, including his conviction last week of former Goldman Sachs board member and McKinsey & Co. head Rajat Gupta, a case that had news outlets pondering whether he’d replace Eric Holder as Attorney General or whether he might be the next Eliot Ness. In the middle of it, Bharara took time out to seek the safe return to Mongolia of a dinosaur skeleton, showing there’s no case too big, or too prehistoric, for him to tackle.

Clyde Williams – Prior to Saturday, former DNC political director Clyde Williams’ campaign for Congress was largely ignored, as the media reduced the five-candidate field in NY-13 to Rangel vs. Espaillat. Then came the Times endorsement and a glowing follow-up profile by the Grey Lady. The next day the Daily News added their nod. All this ink might end up being too little too late for Williams, but his campaign couldn’t have hoped for a better final stretch before Tuesday’s primary.

Bob Turner – Turner’s Senate campaign again showed its mastery at pulling off publicity stunts. The same team that engineered last summer’s defeat of David Weprin brought Turner to south Brooklyn this week to sing God Bless the U.S.A. with a bunch of kindergartners, in protest of reports that the kids were being forced to sing Justin Bieber at a graduation ceremony instead of the patriotic song. But the protest turned ugly as the kids were heckled by adults – and when the whole thing was caught on video, Fox News and other conservative media outlets had a fit. Then, Turner blamed the whole thing on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who he may face this fall. In an otherwise low-interest Senate race, Turner found a way to get himself noticed by conservatives.

George Maragos - The GOP candidate for U.S. Senate tried to spin his decision to pay himself back $795,000 of the money he lent his largely self-financed campaign as savvy fiscal management, but it was hard to construe the six-figure withdrawal, which was disclosed in a late filing, as anything other than a tacit admission that his campaign is a sinking ship. Candidates who believe they are going to win pour every last cent they have into the final days of a tight race. Soon-to-be losers, well, they do what Maragos did.

Michael Grimm – The Staten Island congressman is celebrating “Take Your Dog To Work Day” today with his Yorkshire Terrier, Sebastian, but what’s really dogging him these days is the FBI’s investigation into his campaign fundraising. His most recent campaign disclosures listed hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal fees – far more than he brought in during the same period – and several people on his campaign subsequently said the FBI had been asking questions about 2010 campaign donations and who collected them. A “ruff” time, indeed.

Nick Spano – Some tax cheats do pay the price, it turns out. Once one of the state’s most influential lawmakers, Spano this week was sentenced to a prison term for failing to pay $53,000 in taxes, though the year and a day he’ll spend behind bars is at least somewhat less than the 18 months the prosecutor asked for. He’ll also get to enjoy his freedom through Independence Day – when he’ll perhaps ponder his betrayal of the public trust and the black mark he brought to Westchester’s powerful Spano family – before being locked up on July 9.

Yossi Gestetner - Gestetner resigned his new job as director of Jewish outreach for the state GOP this week after reports surfaced of his past work for an anti-Zionist group and defense of accused sex offenders. That wasn’t exactly convenient for the state GOP, which is trying to make inroads into Brooklyn’s Orthodox community, though the whole thing did seem a slight bit unfair. A well-known Jewish blogger, Gestetner blamed the whole thing on his past, negative writings about Senate candidate Simcha Felder.

Larry Seabrook - What could be worse than facing a corruption trial? Answer: facing your second corruption trial, on the same charges, after having the first one declared a mistrial. No matter what the verdict in the City Councilman’s second case, and despite what, if any, good he’s done as a lawmaker, he won’t be able to shed the ignominy of his doctored receipt charging New York taxpayers $177 for a $7 Snapple and a bagel. That’s a pretty harsh sentence all on its own.

To vote for the ultimate political Winner & Loser from this week visit City & State by clicking here.

But how effective are all those ad buys? In City & State’s new feature Ad Watch we look at some of the commercials vying to win over New York voters and ask experts in the field if the spots are hitting their mark or flying off target.

“FIGHT BACK”

Click here to view the video.

CANDIDATE: Bob Turner

PRODUCED BY: Patrick Media (Phoenix, AZ)

LENGTH: 30 seconds

DESCRIPTION: The first ad of Rep. Bob Turner’s campaign for U.S. Senate reintroduces voters to Turner, and portrays him as a “conservative Republican,” in contrast to Kirsten Gillibrand, who is derided in the spot as “the country’s most liberal Senator.”

PROS: The ad reminds voters of the national magnitude of Turner’s special-election victory last year when he took Anthony Weiner’s former seat, and plays up the congressman’s Everyman image. It also completely ignores Turner’s primary opponents, tacitly asserting his campaign’s narrative that he is the only Republican who can beat Gillibrand.

CONS: Though the unusually early June 26 primary date appears with a sound effect and remains on screen for the last half of the ad, the fact that it is never said aloud and appears in relatively small type seems a mistake, given how critical getting voters to the polls will be in this all-but-certain low-turnout contest. Moreover, one of the first images is a campaign poster from Turner’s special-election race last year with the date September 13 in large letters, creating possible confusion for the viewer. Lastly, in typical campaign-ad fashion, the spot uses as bad a picture of Gillibrand as possible—but at the same time also uses an unflattering image of Turner, 20 seconds into the ad, where he appears hunched over.

EXPERT OPINION: “As a ‘red-meat-for-the-GOP-faithful’ spot, this ad does a decent job of introducing Turner as a true believer conservative who can win a tough race, while hitting all the standard anti-Democrat buzzwords. So for a GOP primary against two relatively unknown opponents, it works. Turner’s problem, of course, is that this messaging would fail badly in the general election against a well-known and well-liked incumbent like Senator Gillibrand, so its effectiveness in the primary environment actually works against him in November, when he’s going to have to try to appear more centrist to try to win votes.”
—Doug Forand, founding partner, Red Horse Strategies

“FAKE DEMOCRAT”

Click here to view the video.

CLIENT: InnovationPAC

PRODUCED BY: InnovationPAC, in-house
(Washington, D.C.)

LENGTH: 46 seconds

DESCRIPTION: This ad, the first in a series of Web spots attacking Rep. Nydia Velázquez, was produced by InnovationPAC, a D.C.-based, self-described “political action committee for SBIR [small business innovation research] innovators.” In the animated ad, a blue-collar donkey comes home to find Velázquez in bed, with a Wall Street bull throwing money at her.

PROS: The ad uses humor, sexual innuendo and a clichéd adultery scenario to illustrate vividly the PAC’s accusation that Velázquez is in bed with Wall Street donors. It also appears to come from the perspective of disillusioned Democrats by urging the viewer not to “let corrupt politicians make an ass of us again.”

CONS: This deliberately tawdry ad runs the risk of backfiring by appalling viewers rather than making them laugh. In addition, both the donkey and the Velázquez impersonator’s faux-Hispanic accents open the ad to accusations of ethnic stereotyping. This is likely too inflammatory an ad to ever be run by a named opponent, and demonstrates how more controversial lines of attack are available to PACs.

EXPERT OPINION: “This is an effective and entertaining ad. It drives home a simple message concisely. Its liability is its 46-second length—a careless tip-off that this will never reach a television screen.”
—Bill O’Reilly, partner, NLO Strategies

To read the full article at City & State click here.

Bob Turner.

GOP primaries are not the norm in New York City, but this Tuesday, registered Republicans have the chance to pick a nominee to challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in November.
Of the three candidates, U.S. Rep. Bob Turner seems to have the best experience and is the one most ready to represent all New Yorkers in the Senate.
We realize that the thing that stands out most to us about him, his openness to compromise with Democrats on taxes, will not be seen as a plus by many Republican voters. And admittedly, many may not put much stock in the endorsement of a paper that endorses Democrats much more often. But these voters may want to look less at ideological purity and more at who has the best chance to win. Our interest is in having the two strongest candidates.
Many Republicans feign interest in the national debt when it comes to government programs they don’t like but ignore it when it comes to taxes or defense spending. Turner’s interest in the debt is sincere and he is at least willing to listen to Democrats, rather than closing the door to any real negotiations.
It is clear to us that he would be better than most Republican senators, as well as his two opponents, Wendy Long and George Maragos. He deserves the chance to try and make the case that he is also better than Gillibrand. We endorse Bob Turner in Tuesday’s Republican primary.

Wendy Long is a Manhattan lawyer and political newcomer whose campaign has suffered some financial setbacks. She currently holds $193,000 in debt, City & State recently reported, though a campaign spokesperson said she will have sufficient funds to compete in the primary due to prominent backers. Long has an extensive history of involvement in conservative activism and politics as a lobbyist for conservative judges; she pushes for an end to what she sees as “limited self-government” and “elite liberal” destruction of the Constitution and individual rights and enterprise. According to Norquist’s release, Long is the only candidate of the three who has committed to not raising taxes.

Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos accuses his opponents of being indecisive on the tax issue and focuses heavily on his own history of business experience in finance. Prior to his political career, Maragos was a vice president at Chase Manhattan Bank and Citibank before founding SDS Financial Technologies, of which he was president for over 20 years. Maragos says that what’s lacking in Congress is solid economic theory above all else. He believes the government’s top priority is restoring economic growth and creating private sector jobs. Maragos says our economy requires a “fundamental restructuring,” including a restoration to free market principles.
Despite the contentious issues on the table, experts anticipate a low turnout at the primaries; a recent Siena College poll shows 70 percent of Republican voters do not prefer any candidate.

Long, one of the leading contenders for the GOP nomination to take on Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, raised $104,000 between early April and early June. She now has $81,000 more in debts than in cash.

The financial problems may help explain the departure of two Long staffers. Late last month, well-paid campaign manager Dick Wadhams departed and was replaced by operative Rob Ryan.

And on May 15, Long campaign fundraiser Christina Comer departed after a month of working for Long. In both instances, Long’s campaign has said that the moves were not results of financial difficulties.

The report shows that Wadhams is owed $37,000, Verus Partners $22,500, the Casale Group $60,000 and Prosper Group $15,600, among several other smaller debts owed to vendors. Long also owes herself $28,000 for travel/phone expenses, and has lent $17,000 to the campaign.

Long’s debt is not a complete surprise, since her first campaign filing showed a very high burn rate.

In his latest filing, Long’s opponent, Brooklyn/Queens Congressman Bob Turner raised just over $104,000 from early April to early June, and himself had just $108,000 on hand for the campaign’s stretch run. The third candidate, Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos, has not yet released his filing.

Meanwhile, the winner of the three-way GOP primary on June 26 will face off against Gillibrand, who has more than $9 million in the bank.

UPDATE:

Here’s a statement from Long’s campaign spokesman, David Catalfamo.

“With the help of endorsements from leading state and national conservatives like Steve Forbes, Grover Norquist, Laura Ingraham, John Bolton and Sean Hannity today, Wendy has attracted the support of 176 individual donors from 27 states. It’s clear that momentum is building around Wendy’s candidacy and she will have the resources necessary to compete and win on June 26th.”

To read the full article at City & State click here.

Charter School supporters are gearing up.

Brooklyn

David Storobin’s district office will be the same one that was used by Carl Kruger.

Charles Barron’s affinity for Nehru jackets could be a problem in Congress.

Tenants PAC is going after Marty Golden.

The Amsterdam News is backing Charles Barron.

Queens

A breakdown of the key neighborhoods in the NY-06 race.

A rare policy disagreement has emerged in the race.

U.S. Senate

Wendy Long’s campaign is using Fred Dicker’s words to fundraise.

Elsewhere

Ex-Assemblyman David Koon, who is running for his old seat, apologized for comments slamming his constituents following a 2010 loss.

There was a bit of a Twitter fight in the Democratic primary to take on Nan Hayworth.

To read more from City & State click here.

In an interview, the head of the Brooklyn Tea Party, Joseph Hayon, said that while all three GOP Senate candidates had some support, the decision had in large part come down to the fact that Maragos decided to come speak to his organization, while neither of Maragos’ opponents, Turner or Wendy Long, had paid similar tribute.

“One of the biggest complaints Tea Parties have is that in general, elected officials take us for granted,” Hayon said. “[Maragos] was willing to humble himself to get Tea Party support.”

There is also an alternative theory floating around. Though Hayon was an early supporter of Turner’s congressional bid in 2011, Orthodox Pundit says that Hayon, who is a strident opponent of same-sex marriage, was disillusioned by Turner’s reluctance to campaign on the gay marriage issue during his 2011 congressional special election race, in the wake of the legalization of gay marriage in New York. (Turner did bring up the issue during his unsuccessful 2010 bid for Congress.)

Hayon says gay marriage did play a role in the Brooklyn Tea Party’s endorsement decision – because Maragos is the only candidate to publicly back a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage – but insisted that no “payback” against Turner was involved.

As a side note, Hayon says he believes Maragos is likely to eventually get the backing of the National Organization for Marriage, as the only one of the three candidates who has publicly backed the idea of an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment.

In an interview, Maragos said it would be “premature” to state that NOM was locked down, and said he would be publicly rolling out more endorsements in June.

In other Republican U.S. Senate primary news, Maragos says a debate has been scheduled for June 19^th in Erie County, while the details of a planned NY1 debate are still being hammered out.

To read more from City & State click here.

With Joe Carvin’s departure from the race for the GOP U.S. Senate nomination, top consultant Bill O’Reilly’s strange couple of days are over.

O’Reilly confirmed that with Carvin out of the race, he is now back doing press for Rep. Bob Turner, whose campaign for Congress was helped enormously by O’Reilly’s press work. But when Turner announced for Senate this week,with O’Reilly already committed, another member of O’Reilly’s firm, Jessica Proud, handled press for Turner’s campaign, while O’Reilly continued to do Carvin. Both offered to quit both campaigns because of the conflicts, O’Reilly said.

E. O’Brien Murray, who managed Turner’s 2011 congressional campaign and had been considered the mastermind behind the upset, also had been with Carvin.

Here’s the statement that went out this morning:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

JOE CARVIN: ‘REPUBLICANS WILL BE WELL REPRESENTED IN RACE AGAINST GILLIBRAND’

Withdraws Candidacy; Remains Neutral

Rochester, NY – March 16…Westchester businessman and Rye Town Supervisor Joe Carvin (R) withdrew his candidacy today for the Republican nomination for the United States Senate.

When Carvin made the decision to get into this race, the Republican Party had only one declared candidate for the office. Carvin entered the race because he wanted to ensure that the Republican Party faithful had a choice of candidates and to ensure that voters understood the depth and urgency of the financial crisis confronting the nation and threatening our long-term jobs prospects.

“I was pleased with the positive feedback I received from Party members and leaders around the state when I talked about the need to fundamentally restructure our entitlement systems, our tax code and health care,” Carvin said.

Carvin made it clear that this kind of fundamental reform could not go forward without shared sacrifice among the people of New York and the United States. “Far too often politicians are afraid to tell voters the truth about the severity of the fiscal and jobs crisis we are facing. I was pleased that the New York Republicans are prepared roll up their sleeves and take on today’s daunting challenges.”

Since Carvin’s decision to enter the race, two new candidates have decided to run for US Senate joining George Maragos in the competition, Wendy Long and Congressman Bob Turner.

“My number one goal in entering the race was to ensure that the Republican Party had a nominee capable of defeating Ms. Gillibrand in November,” Mr. Carvin said. “But in the last several days – after Ms. Gillibrand was ranked the most left-wing senator in America by National Journal and after she voted for higher gas prices by opposing the Keystone XL Pipeline – I believe any of the candidates in this race can beat her. I am one hundred percent confident that I would have received the 25% of the Republican delegate vote necessary to get on the ballot, but I am now comfortable that my party is well represented.”

The New York State Republican Convention, at which a Party nominee will be chosen, is being held today in Rochester, NY.

“This has been a tremendously uplifting experience and I am extraordinarily grateful to all those around the state who have supported me in ways large and small over the past few weeks. I am particularly grateful to my own county chairman Doug Colety and his committee for giving me such strong support.”

To see more from City & State click here.