Yesterday I posted my predictions for the winners on Sunday’s 66^th Annual Tony Awards telecast. Below, my feelings about who will and who should go home with the gold in the musical categories:

Best Musical: Nominees include the already-shuttered Leap of Faith, Newsies, Nice Work If You Can Get It, and Once. This is a rather humdrum list. Once is truly a play with music, as End of the Rainbow and Peter and the Starcatcher both identified themselves this season, but it opted to classify itself as a musical, so I’ll play it as it lays. And it lies at the head of the pack here, challenged only by the crowd-pleasing Newsies. Who would have thought that Newsies, based on a bomb Disney movie musical from twenty years ago, would be the Goliath in this race? I still find it a middling musical, and as the more commercial one, would benefit less from a Tony win than Once, which could use the push. I, perhaps foolishly, grant the win to Once, which succeeds better on its own (slightly problematic) terms than the other nominees.

Will win: Once

Should win: Once

Should have been nominated: absolutely nothing else this season

Best Direction of a Musical: Nominees include Jeff Calhoun (Newsies), Kathleen Marshall (Nice Work If You Can Get It), Diane Paulus (The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess), and John Tiffany (Once). Tiffany will likely prevail here, and should: he managed to fuse a lot of unorthodox moving parts to turn Once into The Little Show That Could. Personally, I’d vote for Follies’ Eric Schaeffer over this quartet, but he didn’t make the cut.

Will win: Tiffany

Should win: Tiffany

Should have been nominated: Eric Schaeffer, Follies

Best Leading Actor in a Musical: Nominees include Danny Burstein (Follies), Jeremy Jordan (Newsies), Steve Kazee (Once), Norm Lewis (Porgy), and Ron Raines (Follies). Sometimes I play this game, where I put my money on the actor I want to win less, as karmic insurance that the one I want to win more will prevail. So even though the general consensus has it that long overdue veteran Burstein will win for his definitive portrayal of Buddy, I’ll stick the much-hyped Jordan instead. All the while, I feel that a solid Lewis and especially Kazee are being overlooked in the mix, particularly the latter nominee, whose delicate work headlining this year’s sleeper hit absolutely deserves recognition.

Will win: Jordan

Should win: Burstein or Kazee

Should have been nominated: no one

Best Leading Actress in a Play: Nominees include Jan Maxwell (Follies), Audra McDonald (Porgy), Cristin Milioti (Once), Kelli O’Hara (Nice Work), and Laura Osnes (Bonnie and Clyde). I’m a huge proponent of Maxwell’s work this year; her rendition of “Story of Jessie and Lucy” slew me, and I haven’t stopped thinking about it all year. Also, Milioti’s idiosyncratic blend of tenderness and pluck was a big driving force behind Once’s success – her “The Hill” has also haunted me all season. But this one looks like McDonald’s race to lose, and that rankles me. Though it’s her first award as a leading performer, McDonald will set a record with five acting wins – tying Julie Harris and Angela Lansbury – and I just don’t think her Bess is harrowing or transcendent enough to earn that career milestone (one that took Lansbury an additional four decades to hit, at that). Still she’s a beloved member of the community, and a win seems all but assured.

Will win: McDonald

Should win: Maxwell

Should have been nominated: Bernadette Peters, Follies

Best Featured Actor in a Play: Nominees include Philip Boykin (Porgy), Michael Cerveris (Evita), David Alan Grier (Porgy), Michael McGrath (Nice Work), and Josh Young (Jesus Christ Superstar). Except for McGrath, all of the nominees here are nominated for revivals, and even Nice Work dusts off a bunch of Gershwin standards. I give McGrath the edge over Cerveris, but for me, Boykin stands out the most. His Crown was riveting, memorable and incredibly well-sung. He buoyed Porgy to places it didn’t go when he wasn’t onstage.

Will win: McGrath

Should win: Boykin

Should have been nominated: Patrick Page, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark (yes, really)

Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Nominees include Elizabeth A. Davis (Once), Jayne Houdyshell (Follies), Judy Kaye (Nice Work), Jessie Mueller (On a Clear Day You Can See Forever), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (Ghost the Musical). Mueller was the bright light in an otherwise execrable misfire, and Houdyshell brought humor and subtlety to a small but memorable part. Still, I said it in my review http://nypress.com/hard-work/, this is Kaye’s to win. Note to those who want a Tony: put a chandelier in your show, too.

Will win: Kaye

Should win: Houdyshell or Mueller

Should have been nominated: Melissa van der Schyff, Bonnie or Bryona Marie Parham or NaTasha Yvette Williams, Porgy

Let’s see how my predictions go!

Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Man boasts a smart ensemble

By Doug Strassler

The Best Man, Gore Vidal’s moralistic chestnut, was written and set in 1960, running parallel with the Kennedy-Nixon presidential race. It’s since been revived on Broadway twice; first in 2000, and again now in 2012. What might all these years have in common? Yep, they’re election years! Timing might up the cache of this show, but the current revival, girded by a talented and starry ensemble with 13 Emmys and nine Tonys among them, proves that the show could be a winner any year.

Michael Wilson’s smartly-paced and well-designed show moves back and forth between the Philadelphia hotel suites belonging to two rival candidates: former Secretary of State William Russell (John Larroquette) and Senator Joseph Cantwell (Eric McCormack). Both are eager to receive the party of endorsement of ex-president Arthur “Artie” Hockstader (James Earl Jones) as well as Sue-Ellen Gamadge (Angela Lansbury), the powerful head of an anonymous women’s organization. Candice Bergen plays Russell’s wife, Alice, weary from a life of standing by her wayward man with a smile on her face, while Kerry Butler’s Mabel Cantwell is a far more ambitious Southern belle.

Hockstader’s choice matters less than the ones others make while waiting for it. In Vidal’s diagrammatic setup, everyone has something to lose, and both Cantwell and Russell eventually find the ammo they need against one another. Russell’s no angel, but he’s not quite as dirty as Cantwell. Will he compromise his beliefs and his legacy to further his career? It’s to Larroquette’s credit that we accept and come to sympathize with Russell, even if we’re not sure we agree with steps he is willing to take and even though traces of arrogance remain throughout his self-righteous sermonizing. The actor grounds the show with his sharp elocution and charisma. McCormack, meanwhile, succeeds at walking a finer line. Cantwell is slick and phony, but not transparent, and McCormack’s ability to communicate his aggressiveness without giving the game away is to be applauded.

The women playing their wives fare less well. Alice is the heart of the show, but Bergen looks uncomfortably rigid on stage. It’s only in her repartee with Larroquette that she softens and we begin to see what makes her tick. Butler, hidden behind an unconvincing and inarticulate Dixie accent, is an even bigger stretch, embellishing comic relief into caricature. As Cantwell’s and Russell’s campaign managers, Corey Brill and Michael McKean offer sharp turns, and Lansbury, Dakin Matthews and Jefferson Mays play their minor parts to the hilt. More than anyone, Jones has a field day as the authoritarian Hockstader, suggesting how virtue can be a vice of its own.

The Best Man isn’t riveting; Vidal’s ideas are all ideals, and while evergreen, they’re all familiar by now. He’s preaching to the choir about the importance of being earnest, which stopped being news long before Oscar Wilde put pen to paper. But Wilson has mounted a mighty attractive campaign. You could make for a worse cabinet than the cast that makes Best the attractive draw that it is.

Gore Vidal’s The Best Man

Gerald Schoenfeld Theatre, 236 W. 45th St. www.thebestmanonbroadway.com. Through July 8.