Running for Governor or Running for Cover?
In 1994, New York State Republicans tapped a little-known, lanky state senator with an audacious comb over and a crooked smile to run for statewide office. George Pataki. He's now America's longest tenured governor.
In 2004, New York State Republicans tapped a little-known, short Assemblyman with an audacious quaff and boyish face to run statewide for a U.S. Senate seat. Howard Mills lost by more than three million votes in one of the most lopsided elections in state history.
In 2006, four statewide jobs are up for grabs-governor, comptroller, attorney general and U.S. Senate-and Republicans seem willing to tap just about anybody to run.
Is this 1994 again-or 2004?
Over the last decade and change, New York's Republican Party has evaporated under Pataki as he's been attacked for abandoning the fiscally conservative principles that first won him the office. As the national Republican Party went south, so did the state party.
This year the likely candidates include William Weld, the former governor of Massachusetts who swore off using his personal fortune in a run; Tom Golisano, the billionaire financier of the New York State Independence Party, who enrolled in the Republican Party this Tuesday morning; Randy Daniels, the black former Democrat who switched parties and signed on as secretary of state under Pataki to prep for a run at his boss' office (even hiring Pataki's first campaign manager); John Faso, the former GOP candidate for state comptroller who doesn't seem interested in a rematch with Alan Hevesi; and Pat Manning, an upstate Assemblyman and former high school basketball star who few city folks have ever heard of. That is: an out-of-towner, an eccentric plutocrat, a party-swapper, a never-was and some guy from the hook of the Boss' (no, not D'Amato) "Glory Days."
On Oct. 12, inside Gallagher's Restaurant in Malone, N.Y., 30 miles west of Plattsburgh, Pirro, Cox, Weld and others are going to pitch their candidacies to Republican Party leaders. Chairman Stephen Minarik, who doesn't like primaries, will be there. So will James Ellis, the Franklin County Republican Chairman who is playing host for the day. And they're not looking for another Howard Mills. "There are 62 of us [county leaders] who are very determined this will not happen again," Ellis said.
Later on, though, he admits his standards are much lower:
"I guess it's like when you're being shot at you don't care where the hell the bullets are coming from, you just dodge 'em. That's what we're trying to do. Keep ourselves in the trenches and keep ourselves alive and deal with things as they come up." It's never a good sign when party leaders fear the party is one bad election away from dead.
Ellis may be a backwater hick from the sticks, but he's been a backwater hick involved in Republican politics since 1971, when Governor Rockefeller was running for his third term and Republicans controlled both houses of the state legislature. He's seen the glory days. He's also seen the current days. Thanks to gerrymandering, the GOP still controls the State Senate, but each new election cuts down the size of their majority.
"1974's solution can't be 1994's solution," he tells me. "And they can't be the 2005 solution."
Whatever the solution, it's going to have to be huge. An Oct. 4 Quinnipiac poll had likely Democratic candidate Eliot Spitzer with 60% support among registered voters. The closest any of the Republican candidates came was 22%, and that was Golisano, who, again, isn't in the party.
So what is the solution?
"I think someone is going to have to be a fiscal conservative [and] understand that New York State can't spend the money it is spending, even under someone like George Pataki who [already] is a fiscal conservative," said Ellis. The joke, of course, is that Pataki came into office a true fiscal conservative, quickly began spreading the wealth amongst friends and patrons ('sup Dennis!) and upping spending at rates that would make a Cuomo feel right at home.
In politics, timing beats talent. Nobody knows that better than Al D'Amato. That's how the former Senator Pothole won the governor's mansion away from Democrats in the first place. By running an OKcandidate at the right time. Party building, which pays dividends much further down the road and many potholes later, simply wasn't a priority. D'Amato's friends, who are now Pataki's friends, got paid in full. Meanwhile, Republicans under Pataki squandered 12 years of heir-grooming potential, the same way Pataki's predecessor, Mario Cuomo did.
The party's "not in the business of creating competitors to the governor," said Albany lobbyist and political consultant Norman Adler.
"So the only way you would get an heir would be if there was another statewide Republican official who was sort of self-sponsoring. And both the elected statewide officials with independent offices are Democrats." And no one they defeated is looking for a rematch.
For Ellis, what's been lost is the good ol' days when Pataki, fresh off his victory over that invincible icon of indefatigable liberalism Mario Cuomo, was a rock star. The world's dullest rock star, to be sure, but a rock star nonetheless But like all true stories that turn into myths over time, this one is misunderstood by those who believe in it most.
"People say George Pataki came out of nowhere, that he wasn't a household name," said Adler.
"But the people who were behind [Pataki], were very established forces in the Republican Party. Now what you have is guys who may have less formidable sponsors but have resources in their own right. Money, track records, contacts."
One myth Republicans do believe in-whether they admit it or not-is the magnetism of the Democratic ticket. In November of 2003, Republican enrollment trailed Democrats by 2,056,381. One year later, that gap grew by 269,111 voters. In Gotham, Democrats increased their edge over Republicans by 100,000 in that year. Forget 10,000 Maniacs. This is 100,000 Deaniacs.
In New York State, Republicans are to Democrats what reformers once were to Tammany Hall-they get elected when the other side fucks up. (Of course, there's a credible school of thought that argues everyone in Albany sleeps with the same whores-'sup Dennis!-and, for that matter, interns-'sup Junior!)
Another reason Republicans are dipping deeper into the shallow talent pool is their need to keep the State Senate, where they hold a 35 to 27 edge. It's likely to be the only branch of government they control after 2006. Throw in some open Senate seats with a weak ticket, and Albany becomes Democrat headquarters.
If that happens, according to professor and commentator Alan Chartock, more tired old Republican senators will throw in the towel, letting the last oasis of Republicanism disappear like a mirage in the desert. Poof. The new Buster Douglas.