Doug’s Fearless Emmy Predictions, Part 2

Written by Doug Strassler on . Posted in NY Press Exclusive.


Modern Family

On Wednesday I made some fearless predictions regarding the dramatic nominees for Sunday’s Emmy telecast. The corresponding Comedy categories represent a bit more of a hollow batch, with some surprising inclusions and a few infuriating exclusions. Will the right performers and shows prevail? Read on:

 

Best Comedy Series: Nominees include 30 Rock, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Girls, Modern Family, Veep and The Big Bang Theory. Sigh. That’s three HBO shows, but no Enlightened, my favorite of the bunch. And also no Louie. This is a fairly anemic group – 30 and Modern are good shows that had unremarkable, though consistent, seasons. Of the three HBO shows, only Girls offered a really distinct and coherent voice. Still, I imagine a Modern three-peat. Yawn.

Will win: Modern Family

Should win: Girls (and an un-nominated Louie)

 

Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: Nominees include Alec Baldwin (30), Don Cheadle (House of Lies), Louis C. K. (Louie), Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men), Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm), and Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory). Both Baldwin and Parsons have two of these, and Cryer has one. So I’d love to spread the wealth around have C.K. represent for television’s smartest, most subversive comedy – and he submitted a smart, hour-long episode. However, Parsons’ episode was hilarious and sentimental, a combination that will likely net him a third (still very much deserved) trophy.

Will win: Parsons

Should win: C.K.

 

Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: Nominees include the septet of Zooey Deschanel (New Girl), Lena Dunham (Girls), Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie), Tine Fey (30), last year’s surprise victor Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly), Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep), and Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation). First of all, let’s lament the fact that Enlightened’s Laura Dern, who won the Golden Globe in this category, went un-nominated. Beyond that, let’s say that past winners Falco, Fey and McCarthy will sit on the sidelines this year, as will newbie Deschanel (whose kewpie-doll act is far from my description of great acting). This makes it a three-way race between Dunham, whose Girls marks a mini-television watershed moment (and who got tons of industry mileage from a very public eulogy for the late Nora Ephron), Louis-Dreyfus, solid but not revelatory in Veep, and Poehler, who currently rides a Hollywood crescendo of “she’s overdue/ it’s her moment” hype.

Will win: Louis-Dreyfus over Poehler

Should win: Dunham or Falco

 

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: Nominees include Modern’s Ty Burrell, Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Ed O’Neill, and Eric Stonestreet, New Girl’s Max Greenfield, and Saturday Night Live’s Bill Hader. I actually think Hader has demonstrated the most comedic prowess (if only he could stop cracking himself up during his Stefon act), but I think Modern has a monopoly on this category. I’ll say Burrell has the edge over a long-overdue O’Neill. (Maybe he and perennially snubbed Katey Sagal can toast together somewhere backstage.) Don’t discount Greenfield: he has been campaigning aggressively for this nod all season long.

Will win: Burrell over O’Neill

Should win: Burrell or Hader

 

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Nominees include Mayim Bialik (Bang), Julie Bowen and Sofia Vergara of Modern, Kathryn Joosten (Desperate Housewives), Merrit Wever (Jackie), and Kristin Wiig (SNL). This is the hardest category to call. Emmy could favor either Modern girl (Bowen won last year) – and Bowen was again outstanding. Wever gets a long overdue nod after Jackie’s fourth season, but Wiig just left SNL – however, affection for her has never brought a victory in the past. Throw in the recently deceased Joosten, who already has two Guest Actress Emmys, to cut in with a sympathy vote. That leaves Blossom grad Bialik, whose nerdy but amorous Amy Farrah Fowler has create plenty of Hollywood buzz. If she does win, she’d be good to thank Parsons – he’s brought out the career best in her.

Will win: Bialik over Vergara and Joosten

Should win: Wever

 

Tune in on Sunday night to see if any of my predictions come true!

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