Doug’s Fearless Emmy Predictions, Part 1

Written by Doug Strassler on . Posted in NY Press Exclusive.


Mad Men

Now that we’re almost halfway through hurricane season, it’s safe to say fall has arrived. With that comes the launch of a new television season, augured in by the annual Emmy Awards, a crash course in which television shows have made the most noise in the last year. Below, I try to predict the victors in the Drama category:

 

Best Drama Series: Nominees include Boardwalk Empire, Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, and Mad Men – a pretty solid group of hot-button water cooler shows. Breaking’s epic fourth season was buzz worthy this time last year, only to be immediately clouded by an intense, super-coherent Homeland. But Breaking just finished the first half of its fifth and final season, which occurred during voting time.

Will win: Breaking

Should win: Breaking, Homeland, or Thrones

 

Homeland

Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series: Nominees include Hugh Bonneville (Downton), Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk), Bryan Cranston (Breaking), Michael C. Hall (Dexter), Jon Hamm (Mad), and Damian Lewis (Homeland). These guys represent almost all of the Best Series nominees, which means that voters will have seen most of their work beyond the single episode all acting nominees submit. This could benefit Lewis, who calibrated a deceptive complicated character over a twelve-episode arc. Still, Cranston remains on a roll. He’ll likely take home his fourth angel.

Will win: Cranston

Should win: Cranston, Hamm or Lewis

 

Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series: Nominees include Kathy Bates (Harry’s Law), Glenn Close (Damages), Claire Danes (Homeland), Michelle Dockery (Downton), Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife), and Elisabeth Moss (Mad). Luckily for Bates, she just won a Guest Actress Emmy – her career first – for Two and a Half Men, ‘cuz she won’t be taking home no gold this Sunday in this competitive category. Sadly, the true female lead this season on Mad – Jessica Pare – went un-nominated (snubbed, I tells ya!), and while Moss really played a strong supporting role this season, she could prevail. Still, Danes pulled no punches on the hottest new show of the year. Breaking might win in the other big categories, but look for Homeland to win here.

Will win: Danes

Should win: Close

 

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: Nominees include Jim Carter and Brendan Coyle (Downton), Peter Dinklage (Thrones), Jared Harris (Mad), and Giancarlo Esposito and Aaron Paul (Breaking). Harris’ inclusion suggests a lot of support on the part of Emmy voters, but I think this comes down to a two-show battle between Dinklage and Esposito – and I give last year’s winner, Dinklage, the edge. Still, I am praying for a Downton upset for one of the two under-heralded stars of the British import.

Will win: Dinklage

Should win: Dinklage or Esposito

 

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Nominees include three previous winners and three newbies: Wife’s Baranski and Panjabi, Downton’s Joanne Froggatt and Maggie Smith, Breaking’s Anna Gunn and Mad’s Christina Hendricks. I think Gunn had the most revelatory season, but Hendricks had the best episode. I say it’s a race between Hendricks and Smith, who won for Downton last year in the miniseries category. Smith is beloved but had less to do this season, so I lean toward Hendricks.

Will win: Hendricks

Should win: Gunn or Hendricks

 

Stay tuned for my Comedy Series predictions on Friday!

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