Everyone agrees (even Gore One of the reasons Bush’s Another reason picking Cheney The Gore campaign seems This is stupid politics. One of the ways we deal The Gore brand is weak, The Gore campaign’s Gore’s next mistake But you can be sure Gore The problem is there is If Gore thinks he can change Gore will likely win the John Ellis runs the Fox
operatives) that Gov. Bush begins the fall campaign with a significant electoral
college advantage, which is unquestionably enhanced by the absence of Perot.
Key states that were lost by President Bush and Sen. Dole (like Ohio, Wisconsin
and Missouri), in part because of Perot, now reside in the category of "leaning
to Gov. Bush." According to The New York Times’ and the Fox
News Channel’s electoral vote counts, states safely for Bush and states
leaning to Bush already add up to a Bush victory (at the moment). For Gore to
make this election close, he has to move every toss-up state into the "leaning
to Gore" category. To do that, he has to attract large numbers of Perot
voters in every toss-up state.
choice of former Defense Secretary Richard Cheney was such a smart move is that
Cheney appeals to the Perot constituency. He’s their kind of guy. He’s
plainspoken and unpretentious and there’s a bit of the pocket-protector
geek about him. Perot voters like politicians who they believe are patriots
first and political animals second. Cheney is a patriot.
was a smart move is that it changed, however subtly, the context of the campaign.
It nationalized the race (Perot voters are largely driven by national issues)
by adding to it someone of national stature. And most important, it shored up
Bush’s greatest weakness, which is lack of experience at the federal/international
level. Many Perot voters cited Clinton’s lack of experience as disqualifying
to have forgotten altogether the Perot phenomenon and the constituency that
made it possible. It’s like it never happened and all those people (19.7
million in 1992, 8 million in 1996) never voted. Shortly after Cheney’s
addition to the GOP ticket was announced, a gaggle of female Democratic elected
officials showed up on television to denounce Bush’s choice as bad on abortion,
bad on guns, bad on Nelson Mandela. This is known as preaching to the choir.
Not one word of what was said was directed at Perot voters or the Perot constituency.
And it is emblematic of the Gore campaign since the beginning of the primary
campaign season. They’re so busy segmenting the electorate into little
strips of interest and influence, they’ve forgotten the most important
demographic in American life, which is: No one has any time. There aren’t
enough hours in the day. Time famine is the central fact of American life.
with time famine is through brands. In fact, we depend on brands as informational
shortcuts to the best available choice. The Bush brand is strong, thanks largely
to the father’s long career in public service. The Bush brand extension
(George W. Bush) seems like an agreeable mix of conservative politics and personal
touch. The brand positioning ("compassionate conservatism") is roughly
in line with how a majority of the electorate perceives itself. The more we
learn about new Bush (Cheney being the latest addition), the more serious he
seems. And the more serious he seems, the more comfortable we are with the idea
of his occupying the Oval Office.
thanks in part to the campaign’s constant attempts at reinvention. To paraphrase
George Will, we’ve been through earth-tones Al, alpha-male Al, populist
Al and various other Als; all in less than one year. The result has been confusion
in the campaign’s brand positioning. Tide will get your clothes whiter
than white. What will Al Gore do? No one can really say.
response to this problem has been attack politics. Why not? It worked against
Bradley, maybe it’ll work against Bush. But attack politics are anathema
to the vast majority of Perot voters. They see it as a sign of weakness, not
a sign of strength. Thus, all those Democrats devoting all that time on television
to attacking Dick Cheney had zero impact on the latest national polling. According
to the Gallup organization (which polled for CNN and USA Today), Bush’s
lead increased smartly in the wake of the Cheney choice.
will be in his selection of a runningmate. He has, exactly, one good choice:
former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. Choosing Rubin would enable him to finally
adopt a brand positioning for his candidacy–the prosperity team–that
might resonate with the Perot constituency.
will never choose Rubin. For one thing, his campaign team would never allow
it. They’d argue it would deny Gore his faux populist stance. They’d
argue Rubin’s Wall Street connections would come back to haunt them. They’d
argue Rubin’s religion (he’s Jewish) would unsettle the electorate
(they’re bigots at heart). They’d argue Rubin doesn’t help them
in the Electoral College math. And Gore won’t need much convincing. After
eight years of playing second fiddle, the idea of having someone stronger than
himself with him on the ticket is unacceptable. He wants his own Al Gore.
no Electoral College math that works for Al Gore, unless he changes the national
political landscape. And the only way he can change the national political landscape
is by changing the context of the campaign. How a campaign is understood largely
determines the outcome. Right now, Bush’s brand positioning enables more
voters to feel comfortable with him than they do with Gore.
that by tearing away at the Bush brand, he’s mistaken. First of all, tearing
away at the Bush brand is hard to do, because it’s a hybrid of both the
father and the son (Cheney fortifies the hybrid brand). Second, the real work
of a campaign is to create its own brand and brand positioning so that voters
know, instantly, the context of a candidacy.
election if he spends the next 90 days building a strong brand and brand positioning.
He will lose if he continues to waste his time reacting to everything the Bush
campaign and the press does and says. The more time he wastes reacting, the
harder it is to establish his own brand identity. Gore needs two good hits in
the next three weeks; a good vice-presidential pick and a good convention. If
he blows both, he’s a goner.
News Channel Decision Desk on election nights and is a first cousin of George
W. Bush. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Everyone agrees (even Gore
One of the reasons Bush’s
Another reason picking Cheney
The Gore campaign seems
This is stupid politics.
One of the ways we deal
The Gore brand is weak,
The Gore campaign’s
Gore’s next mistake
But you can be sure Gore
The problem is there is
If Gore thinks he can change
Gore will likely win the
John Ellis runs the Fox