The mayoral race will stay largely quiet. Just as the rumors always swirl about a business-backed would-be Bloomberg jumping in as a Republican, rumors will also swirl about a black or Latino challenger to try to undercut Bill Thompson among Democrat primary voters. Neither will happen. The existing major candidates have worked too hard, scrubbed their records too clean and raised too much money to let an interloper disturb their grim dance.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo will not fall to earth. He is too skilled a politician to believe his own press, and is too focused on the mechanics of governing to let his attention wander. He knows there are forces that hope he settles into a sophomore slump, so he will stay focused on getting results and keeping on top of every potential threat. Beginner’s luck wears off, but he knows the finish line wasn’t the budget, the tax deal or gay marriage—it will be New York’s economy and job market in 2014. Or 2016.
New York’s media will stay robust and vibrant, even as more and more New Yorkers shift from reading newspapers and watching TV. A new iPad model and other competing tablets will give more people a reason to get their news in mobile form, not in an old format they have to buy every morning or sit down to watch. Yet the profusion of emerging sources of credible and interesting media will continue to grow—as Capital New York did, and BuzzFeed might, and other startups dream of—giving everyone in New York an explosion of good options. That’s good news for new media outlets, bad news for old media empires and scary news for journalists who hope to one day have an employer that contributes to their 401(k).
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