2012 Golden Globe Predictions: Part One

For most, the early winter weeks are a time for hibernation and relaxation. In sunnyHollywoodhowever, it marks the season when the stars come out to honor each other for the past year's work. The first big stop on that train is the Golden Globe Awards, being held this Sunday inLos Angeles. For the 69th year, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association ? an organization of journalists covering American film and television for international outlets ? has nominated a motley crew. (A full list of nominees can be found here.)

While the Hollywood Foreign Press voters mean business in the movie categories, they play around a bit more in the television ones. Since they lump the very different formats of miniseries, television movie and TV series together in the supporting categories, and don't nominate television directors or writers at all, it's clear these categories are mostly for show.

Four of the five nominated shows are new this year ? the Globes have a penchant for grabbing shows early in their run so they can claim bragging rights before the Emmys get a chance to (Six Feet Under,The X-Files). I still give the edge to critical darlingHomeland,which will likely nab a win for star Claire Danes-already a two-time winner-and think Kelsey Grammer could walk away with a third career Globe for his new cable show,Boss.

Ryan Murphy's other show,Glee, has fallen out of critical favor but could still pull a three-peat, since HFPA voters love musical works in all forms. However, it is more likely that one of two very different new shows,EnlightenedorNew Girl, will win.

Meanwhile, the lead actress in a comedy series race is likely betweenEnlightened's Laura Dern andNewGirl's Zooey Deschanel. I give Deschanel the edge, but hope thatParks and Recreation'sAmy Poehler makes it to the stage. It will certainly give the Globes bragging rights over the Emmys, who have been slow to recognize the sitcom, and Poehler's off-the-cuff remarks are likely to be a highlight of the evening if she takes it. I'm guessing that David Duchovny's and Thomas Jane's "himbo" characters-onCalifornicationandHung, respectively-will cancel each other out and Globe voters will again seek new blood in the form of the long overdue Matt LeBlanc fromEpisodes. This would mark not just the first post-Friends win for anyone in the cast-though Lisa Kudrow was overlooked years ago forThe Comeback- but also throw some British flavor into the mix.

Not that there isn't more of that flavor waiting whenDownton Abbeywins the miniseries award over HBO'sMildred Pierce-though expect Brit heavy-weight Kate Winslet to continue her MP winning streak here. And I'll go out on a limb and predict that the very English Idris Elba-known to most asThe Wire's Stringer Bell-will win his first major career award for the BBC seriesLuther.

The aforementioned supporting races are a bit harder to call, though in the Supporting Actor race, I imagine HBO will be pretty happy regardless of the outcome. I say the race is between Peter Dinklage inGame of Thronesand Guy Pearce inMildred Pierce, who both took home Emmys, as predicted this September. In the Supporting Actress category, two major heavy-weights battle it out for the win. Though Jessica Lange could very well pull off another win-her fifth-for her role inAmerican Horror Story, theDownton Abbeylove could spread toward Maggie Smith's performance as Violet, the families biting matriarch. Either way, my vote would be for Kelly MacDonald, who's Margaret Schroeder was the true central character ofBoardwalk Empire's second season.

Stay tuned for part two of my predictions later this week!